Saturday, July 5, 2008

Death Watch or Death Match?

The army believes it has killed about 4,500 LTTE rebels during the first six months of the year, while losing about one tenth that number. In the last three years, since the fighting resumed, over 10,000 people have died (plus another 60,000 between 1983-2002). Since the army went on the offensive two years ago, they have lost about 1,700 dead and 4,000 wounded.

The army believes they have killed or captured some 9,000 LTTE fighters in that period. Some of those captured were actually deserters, who are a good source of info on what is happening in LTTE territory.

The generals now believe the LTTE is in a death spiral, but still capable to doing a lot of damage if the army gets sloppy. The LTTE maintain a reserve of a hundred or more suicide bombers, plus several hundred trained and loyal commandos. So the deliberate, carefully planned attacks on LTTE bunkers continues, capturing a few square kilometers of LTTE territory a week.

In this way, the army now believes it will take about a year to recapture all the LTTE controlled territory in the north and shatter (but not totally destroy) the LTTE. The government assumes that the LTTE will continue as a terrorist organization, trying to maintain bases among radical Tamils living in southern India (where Tamils have lived for thousands of years).

Read more,
http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/srilank/articles/20080701.aspx

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